how extensive was el niño in 1997

2004; Vecchi et al. Having argued that a deterministic (in the atmosphere-only context), seasonally phase-locked process is fundamental to the extension and sudden termination of extreme El Niño events, this difference in timing presents a feature worth discussion. 2b) through the end of the event and the SST used in experiments HANOM_SEP97 (Fig. 6e; the 4°C idealized El Niño: Fig.

El Niño—The dynamic response of the equatorial Pacific Ocean to atmospheric forcing.

Additionally, seasonal changes in the specified background atmospheric conditions, particularly in background convergence associated with movements of the ITCZ, strongly influence the evolution of El Niño in intermediate coupled models, acting to modify the underlying oscillator mechanism (e.g., Jin et al.
This section explores the extent to which the peculiar evolution at the end of the 1997–98 El Niño could be expected to be a general feature of extreme El Niño events. The 1997–98 El Niño evolution relative to previous El Niño events. In this AGCM the return of EEqP easterlies in May 1998 was driven by the seasonal movement of warmest SSTs north of the equator at the end of boreal spring and coincided with a northward retreat of the ITCZ. Part III: Tropical Pacific climate and ENSO.
3a), resulting from a southward shift of the near-date-line τxa and convection (Fig. 5e). 2006; Vecchi et al.

AGCM experiments presented in section 3a indicate that the changes of near-date-line τxa at the end of 1997 were driven by changes to the SST field, in particular through the seasonally influenced meridional location of warmest SST. 1994, 1995; Tziperman et al. OF COMMERCE WILLIAM M. DALEY ANNOUNCES: EL NINO STILL GOING STRONG; IMPACTS Anomalies are computed for the Control experiment from the model’s 1950–2003 monthly climatology, and for ECMWF using its 1957–2002 monthly climatology. Others For each AGCM experiment thin black lines show the evolution of each of the 10 ensemble members, the thick black line shows the evolution of the 10-member ensemble mean for each experiment (data are smoothed using a 15-day centered mean), and the gray line shows the climatological monthly mean. Interaction between annual and interannual variations in the equatorial Pacific. More relevant to the principal focus of this paper was that the timing and amplitude of the equatorial τx changes at the end of the El Niño event were well represented in the model. Union, 49–69. in Africa: "It's virus soup out there", January 2006; Stouffer et al. Center for Atmospheric Research, Interdisciplinary

Or use the Response

Role of high- and low-frequency winds and wave reflection in the onset, growth and termination of the 1997–1998 El Niño.

ENSO warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) event life cycles: Ocean surface anomaly patterns, their symmetries, asymmetries, and implications. turn out to be coincidence, having nothing to do with ENSO at all. Another possible explanation (which does not preclude the influence of stochastic forcing) is that, because of the nonlinear processes involved, differences in the SSTA field between 1982–83 and 1997–98 resulted in different timing of the return of the easterlies. 147, Amer.

This meridional shift in both SSTA and climatological SST results in a stronger hemispheric asymmetry in the forcing for both the Control experiment and HANOM_DEC97_AUG97 than in experiment HANOM_SEP97. Fax 907-257-2789

In both perturbation experiments the east Pacific SST anomalies are equatorially centered, however the meridional location of the warmest total east Pacific SST depends on SSTA amplitude and season. The optimal growth of tropical sea surface temperature anomalies.

VH06 suggest another interpretation, which addresses both the disappearance and return of the easterlies: the warmest EEqP SST moved onto (north of) the equator beginning late January (late April), resulting in the development (northward retreat) of an equatorial intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) that removed (returned) the easterlies to the EEqP (see Fig.

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